New Data Tracks Inequality Over Centuries

WE'VE SEEN INEQUALITY IN AMERICA AT THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL, AND IF
YOU GO AROUND MOST AMERICAN CITIES AND OTHER AREAS, YOU CAN
SEE IT'S AFFECTED NEIGHBORHOODS AND CITIES; HOW PEOPLE LIVE.
BUT WHAT WOULD LOOK LIKE IF YOU COULD TAKE A LOOK AT IT
OVER THE COURSE OF CENTURIES AND ACROSS COUNTRIES?
THIS IS THE PERCENTAGE OF WEALTH OWNED BY EUROPE'S TOP 10%.
WHAT YOU ARE SEEING THERE, IT STARTS IN 1300 ñ 700 YEARS AGO ñ
THE TOP 10% OF SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES OWNED 60 ñ 70% OF THE
WEALTH.
AND THEN THE BUBONIC PLAGUE HAPPENED AND THAT DROPPED
DOWN, AND IT TOOK HUNDREDS OF YEARS TO START TO RECOVER.
BUT THEN GRADUALLY, FROM 1550 ON, THE SHARE THAT THESE TOP
PERCENTAGE OWNED CLIMBED TO 90%.
AN AMAZING CLIMB OVER HUNDREDS OF YEARS.
THAT'S DIFFERENT COUNTRIES, DIFFERENT TIMES, DIFFERENT
RULERS, DIFFERENT POLICIES.
NO MATTER WHAT, INEXORABLY, IT CLIMBS AND CLIMBS AND CLIMBS,
UNTIL, LIKE WITH THE BLACK DEATH, YOU HAVE ANOTHER GREAT
DEATH IN THE WORLD, AND THAT WAS WORLD WAR I AND WORLD WAR II.
THAT DROPS DOWN, BUT NOT AS LOW, 60%,
AND THEN IMMEDIATELY BEGINS TO CLIMB AGAIN.
ONE MORE THING ABOUT THE CHART ITSELF: THE RED PART OF THE
CHART ARE NUMBERS THAT HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED WIDELY RECENTLY,
AND THE BLUE PART OF THE CHART IS THE NEW NUMBERS THAT
HAVE COME IN.
AND WHEN YOU PUT IT TOGETHER IT SEEMS TO TELL ñ
SCARY ñ
YEAH, IT'S A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AND VERY INTERESTING MESSAGE.
LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT THE TAKE AWAY IS FROM THAT DATA, AND THIS
IS WHERE I LIKE TO SPECULATE.
BUT I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT.
ONE TAKE AWAY IS THAT THE HUGE SPIKE UP BEGINS IN THE 1500S.
OF COURSE THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT REASONS FOR THAT, BUT
ONE OF MY HYPOTHESIS IS THAT THAT IS WHEN THE GREAT PLUNDER
OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BEGAN IN EARNEST.
IT'S EXISTED BEFORE, AND WE'VE BEEN PLUNDERING AND PILLAGING
ONE ANOTHER FOR AS LONG AS HUMANS HAVE BEEN AROUND ñ I
MEAN, GO BACK TO CENTRAL ASIA, GENGHIS KHAN, KUBLA CON, AND IT
GOES ON AND ON AND ON.
BUT IN THE 1500S WE GOT THE SHIPS, WHOLE NEW CONTINENTS GOT
OPENED UP TO US.
IT'S WE IN A SENSE.
THERE'S SOME BLAME CERTAINLY FOR MY ANCESTORS AS WELL.
AND YOU KNOW, I LOVE THOSE BEAUTIFUL CITIES IN EUROPE, IN
AMSTERDAM, IS SIMPLE, ETC., LONDON, PARIS OBVIOUSLY, BUT A
LOT OF THAT WAS BUILT ON PLUNDERING.
SO, YOU SEE THE EFFECT OF THAT I THINK IN THESE CHARTS, AS INCOME
INEQUALITY GROWS AND GROWS FOR THE PEOPLE WHO WERE IN CHARGE
AND BENEFITED FROM ALL THE GOLD AND EVERYTHING ELSE THAT WAS
BROUGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TO THE NORTHERN
ATMOSPHERE, AND THAT WEALTH WAS CONCENTRATED INTO A FEW HANDS.
AND THEN YOU HAVE INDUSTRIALIZATION, THE ROBBER
BARONS, AND THAT CONCENTRATION OF WEALTH CONTINUES, EVEN
PICKS UP SPEED.
SO, NOW, WHEN DOES IT EVER GO DOWN?
OBVIOUSLY THERE IS ONE WAY THAT GOES DOWN, WHICH IS NOT
POSITIVE, TREMENDOUS DEATH, LIKE THE BUBONIC PLAGUE AND THE
TWO WORLD WARS.
BUT I WOULD POSIT, AND THIS COULD PROVE OUT IN AMERICA,
THESE ARE EUROPEAN NUMBERS, SO SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT OF COURSE,
THE THING THAT HAPPENED WAS, AFTER WORLD WAR II IN AMERICA WE
ACTUALLY HAD THE NEW DEAL PUT IN PLACE, AND FOR THESE 40 OR 50
YEARS IN THE U.S., IT MADE A GIANT DIFFERENCE.
SO, WHERE BRIBERY STILL EXISTED BUT IT WAS ILLEGAL AND HARD
TO DO.
SO THE POLITICIANS, AT LEAST ON THE DOMESTIC END, REPRESENTED
THEIR VOTERS A LOT BETTER.
AND WHAT DID YOU HAVE?
A FAIRER TAX CODE, SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICARE,
MEDICAID SET UP AS A SOCIAL SAFETY NET.
THAT ALSO APPLIES IN EUROPE, WHERE YOU BEGAN TO HAVE A SOCIAL
SAFETY NET AFTER THE WORLD WARS.
OF COURSE IN EUROPE THE SAFETY NET IS MUCH BETTER THAN IT IS IN
THE U.S.,
AND THAT LEADS TO A DECREASE IN INCOME INEQUALITY; WE GET A
LITTLE MORE EQUAL, WHICH IS GREAT.
ALTHOUGH YOU'LL NOTICE IN THOSE SOCIETIES IN CONTINUED TO GO UP
DURING THAT TIME, EVEN UNDER THE SCANDINAVIAN STYLE SOCIAL SAFETY
NET THAT THEY HAD IN EUROPE AT THAT TIME.
AND THEN IN 1980, AT LEAST IN AMERICA ñ THIS CHART IS AGAIN
FOR EUROPE AND IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ñ WHEN WE BASICALLY
LEGALIZED BRIBERY IN 76 AND 78 BECAUSE OF SUPREME COURT
DECISIONS, AND WE ALLOWED THE RICH TO PAY OFF POLITICIANS IN
THE FORM OF CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS, WELL THE
GOVERNMENT GOES BACK TO BEING CAPTURED BY THE WEALTHY, AND THE
PERCENTAGE OF THE MONEY THAT THE TOP 10% HAVE SKYROCKETED AGAIN.
SO WE ARE NOW AGAIN GETTING TO A POINT WHERE THERE IS
TREMENDOUS INCOME INEQUALITY IN EUROPE AND AMERICA, ESPECIALLY
IN AMERICA, BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENTS HAVE BEEN CAPTURED.
AND THEY ARE BEING CAPTURED NOW, NOT JUST IN AMERICA, BUT
ACROSS EUROPE BY HARD RIGHT, QUASI-AUTHORITARIAN LEADERS
THAT ARE JUST WANT TO PUSH THAT EVEN HARDER.
YEAH, WHEN YOU HAVE THE GREAT DEATHS, YOU SUDDENLY HAVE
AN OPPORTUNITY, BECAUSE SONY PEOPLE HAVE DIED, THE
RELATIVE POWER OF WORKERS GOES UP, BASICALLY.
BUT THE THING IS, WHEN YOU HAVE THESE MAJOR COLONIES OVERSEAS,
AND YOU HAVE INDUSTRIALIZATION, YOU HAVE THESE MAJOR
OPPORTUNITIES WHERE ONLY THE RICH CAN BENEFIT FROM THEM.
A POOR PERSON CAN'T BUY A BOAT TO SAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN TO
MINE FOR GOLD, AND A POOR PERSON CAN'T BUY A FACTORY TO
BENEFIT FROM IT.
THEN OF COURSE YOU HAVE THE LAWS AND TAX POLICIES DESIGNED
TO BENEFIT CERTAIN PEOPLE AND NOT OTHERS.
IT'S A COUPLE GATED SYSTEM, AND CERTAINLY SOMEWHERE THAT WE
NEED TO BRING AN ADVOCATE ñ SOMETHING THAT WE BRING AN
ACADEMIC INTO DISCUSS THIS, BUT IT IS INTERESTING TO SPECULATE.
WELL, ONE WAY IS, LET'S TAKE THE FIRST STEP AND GET OUR
GOVERNMENTS BACK.
AND IF THEY ACTUALLY WORKED FOR 100%
OF THE PEOPLE, RATHER THAN THE TOP 10% AND TOP 1%,
THEN I BET WE'D BE A LITTLE BETTER OFF ON THIS.
AND THAT'S NOT JUST A GUESS, IT IS BORNE OUT BY HISTORY, AT
LEAST ON THE AMERICAN SIDE, WHICH I HAVE STUDIED A LOT MORE,
AND YOU CAN SEE THOSE CHARTS, FROM THE 1940S TO 1980, BEING
FAR MORE EQUAL THAN IT IS TODAY.
YEAH, AND IF YOU ARE RICH AND THIS SCARES YOU, THIS
DIRECTION WE ARE GOING, DON'T WORRY, EVEN IF YOU SUCCEED
ñ EVEN IF WE SUCCEED BEYOND OUR WILDEST DREAMS, YOU CAN
STILL BE FAR MORE WEALTHY THAN US.
YOU NEVER DO POORLY.
YOU'VE NEVER EVER DONE POORLY.
THE ONLY QUESTION IS, HOW WELL DO YOU DO?
WHETHER IT'S OWNING 50% OR 90% OF ALL THE WEALTH.
BY THE WAY, THE CAUSAL CONNECTION COULD BE IN REVERSE,
WHICH IS WHAT THIS ANALYSIS DIDN'T LOOK AT: WHEN INCOME
INEQUALITY PEAKS, WE GET MASSIVE DEATHS.
AND I DON'T KNOW, I DON'T KNOW IF THAT HAD SOME OVERALL
EFFECT, AT LEAST ON THE WORLD WARS.
IT MIGHT HAVE INSPIRED THE RATS.
NO, I'M JOKING BUT I'VE MENTIONED THIS MANY TIMES, I
HAVEN'T TAKEN MUCH OUT OF MY TIME IN ACADEMIA, BUT THAT IS ñ
BUT THAT IS ONE OF THE THINGS.
IF YOU WANT TO FIND A PROTECTOR FOR VIOLENT REVOLUTION, THERE IS
NOTHING STRONGER, AT LEAST IN THOSE COUNTRIES, THEN
INCOME INEQUALITY.
WHEN THAT GETS TO A CERTAIN POINT, PEOPLE FEEL LIKE
THEY HAVE NOTHING LEFT IN A SYSTEM, NO MORE REASON TO
GO ALONG WITH IT, VIOLENCE BECOMES THEIR ONLY OPTION.
THAT IS PERFECTLY LOGICAL, AND NOBODY WANTS TO GET TO THAT
POINT.
NOT ONLY TO THE POOR AND MIDDLE-CLASS NOT WANT TO
GET TO THAT POINT, THE RICH SHOULD WANT THAT POINT EVEN
LESS, BECAUSE THEN YOU ARE RISKING EVERYTHING.
IF YOU'VE ALREADY GOT 70 ñ 80%
OF ALL THE WEALTH, THAT EXTRA 10%
DOESN'T DO YOU ANY GOOD IF IT LEADS TO REVOLUTIONARY VIOLENCE
AND THE KIND OF DEATH YOU HAVE SEEN THROUGHOUT HISTORY.
THAT IS A TERRIBLE WAY TO PLAY THIS, SO IF THEY HAD ANY
SENSE AT ALL, THEY'D BE ON BERNIE SANDERS ASIDE,
GOING, YOU KNOW WHAT?
LET'S EVEN THIS OUT A LITTLE BIT.
GET THIS DOWN TO 65%.
WE'LL STILL BE DOING GREAT, HISTORICALLY, BUT MY HEAD
WILL BE SPLIT OPEN BY A PROTESTER.

New Data Tracks Inequality Over Centuries

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