Leon Panetta: Dangerous To Take Preemptive Strike On North Korea | Andrea Mitchell

NOW THE CHAIRMAN OF THE PANETTA INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY IN
MONTEREY. THANK YOU SO MUCH.
LEON. LET'S TALK ABOUT NORTH KOREA
FIRST OF ALL. WHAT DO YOU EXPECT WE ALL ARE
SORT OF ON HIGH ALERT BRT BECAUF THE WAY THAT NORTH KOREA MARKS
ANNIVERSARIES THAT ARE IMPORTANT IN THEIR CULTURE LIKE THE
FOUNDER'S BIRTHDAY. >> NO QUESTION THIS IS A
TINDERBOX. HAS BEEN FOR A LONG TIME, BUT
WE'RE AT A TIME WHEN THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PROVOCATION.
WITH THE TESTING OF THIS NUCLEAR WEAPON.
AND, YOU KNOW, THE WORDS FROM THE ADMINISTRATION ARE CREATING
EVEN HIGHER VOLUME IN TERMS OF THE PROVOCATIONS THAT ARE GOING
ON. I THINK WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL
HERE. THIS IS, YOU KNOW, WE SHOULD NOT
ENGAGE IN ANY PRECIPITOUS ACTION.
THERE IS A REASON NO OTHER PRESIDENT HAS PULLED THE TRIGGER
ON NORTH KOREA. YOU HAVE 20 MILLION PEOPLE IN
SEOUL, THAT WOULD BE A TARGET. WE HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR A
NUCLEAR WAR THAT WOULD TAKE MILLIONS OF LIVES.
I THINK WE HAVE A EXERCISE SOME CARE HERE.
WE JUST GAVE CHINA THE OPPORTUNITY TO ENGAGE, LET'S SEE
HOW THEY DO. >>> THEY ALSO, OF COURSE, NO
GOVERNMENT IN SOUTH KOREA, AN ACTING GOVERNMENT, AN
IMPEACHMENT, AN ELECTION COMING UP IN MAY, GIVEN THE POLITICS
THERE, THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE MOVING TO THE LEFT.
IF THERE WAS MILITARY ACTION NOW, PRE-EMPTIVE SAY FROM THE
U.S. SIDE, THAT WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SOUTH KOREA'S
WILLINGNESS TO HANDLE THE U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE FUTURE.
>> WELL, IT WOULD BE A DANGEROUS STEP TO TAKE THE ACTION HERE,
PRE-EMPTIVE REACTIONACTION HERE.
THERE WOULD BE A COUNTER REACTION FROM NORTH KOREA.
MOST LIKELY AIMED AT SEOUL. SOUTH KOREA HAS A HUGE STAKE
HERE IN TERMS OF WHAT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN.
IT IS FOR THAT REASON THAT I THINK, YOU KNOW RATHER THAN
INCREASING THE PRESSURE HERE, INCREASING THE SOUNDBITES, I
THINK THIS IS A MOMENT TO KIND OF RESTRAIN OURSELVES, TAKE A
LOOK AT THE SITUATION AND WHAT CHINA CAN DO, AND HE JUST MET
WITH PRESIDENT XI, HE SEEMS PLEASED WITH WHAT PRESIDENT XI
COMMITTED TO, LET'S GIVE CHINA THE CHANCE TO ACT HERE.
WE HAVE A LOT OF FORCE IN THE AREA, WE HAVE A LOT OF PLANS FOR
POTENTIAL ATTACKS THERE, WE HAVE HAD THEM FOR A LONG TIME.
WE ALWAYS HESITATED FOR GOOD REASON BECAUSE OF THE
CONSEQUENCES THAT COULD RESULT. >> LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT WE DO
HAVE. THE ANTIMISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM
THAT IS NOT YET OPERATIONAL. WE DO HAVE DESTROYERS, WE HAVE
TWO DESTROYERS WITH TOMAHAWK MISSILES OFF OF THE COAST OF
JAPAN. WE HAVE A LOT OF TROOPS BELOW
THE DMZ IN JAPAN -- WE HAVE OPTIONS, DON'T WE, IN TERMS OF
MISSILE DEFENSE. THEY CAN BE CAPABLE OF BEING PUT
ON A MISSILE, NOR THE MISSILE THAT COULD BE OPERATIONAL IN A
AREA OR MORE. >> WE KNOW WHAT THEY'RE WORKING
ON. WE KNOW WHAT THEIR CAPABILITIES
ARE. THEY ARE WORKING ON AN ICBM.
WE'RE NOT THERE YET IN TERMS OF AN EFFECTIVE ICBM.
THEY'RE NOT THERE YET IN TERMS OF ADMINISTERZATION.
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THEY HAVE DEVELOPED A MOBILE MISSILE
SYSTEM, THEY FIRED MISSILES FROM
SUBMARINES AND THEY HAVE A DOZEN NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
THE REALITY IS THAT OUR BEST APPROACH IS TO INCREASE THE
DEFENSES, AS WE HAVE WITH THOSE MISSILES IN SOUTH KOREA.
INCREASE OUR MILITARY PRESENCE THERE AS WE HAVE WITH THE USS
VINCENT, AND OTHER NAVY SHIPS IN THAT AREA, AT THE SAME TIME, I
THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TOLE INCREASE OUR SANCTIONS.
WE THREATEN TO INCREASE SANCTIONS, THE SANCTIONS THERE
ARE FRANKLY NOT WORKING AS WELL AS THEY SHOULD.
THEY NEED MORE BITE. AND WE COULD INCREASE THE
SANCTIONS ON THEM AND AT THE SAME TIME INCREASE OUR PRESSURE
ON CHINA TO TRY TO GET CHINA TO COME TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE.
IS A POLICY OF CONTAINMENT AND DETERRENCE.
THAT IS THE REALITY. HOPEFULLY THEY WILL COME TO THE
NEGOTIATING TABLE, OR SELF DESTRUCT BECAUSE OF THE QUALITY
OF THE REGIME WE HAVE IN NORTH KOREA.
>> DO WE HAVE AN OPTION OF REGIME CHANGE?
>> IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE HOPE THAT REGIME CHANGE WOULD HAPPEN
ON IT'S OWN. AND THAT THE NORTH KOREAN PEOPLE
WHO ARE STARVED, AND WHOSE ECONOMY IS ONE OF THE WORST IN
THE WORLD, WE RESPOND AND THEY HAVEN'T.
THIS HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR 60 YEARS.
BUT AT THE SAME TIME, EVERY LEADER TENDS TO BECOME MUCH MORE
DOMINATING IN TERMS OF THE WAY THEY PRESSURE THE NORTH KOREAN
PEOPLE, THE WAY THEY GO AFTER THOSE THAT THEY SUSPECT OF
TRYING TO BE DISLOYAL TO THE LEADER.
AND SO, I THINK THERE COMES A POINT AT WHICH THESE LEADERS, BY
CONDUCTING THEMSELVES THIS WAY, THEY TEND TO OVERREACT AND TAKE
ACTION, WHICH ULTIMATELY COULD
UNDERMINE THEIR OWN REGIME. I THINK THE SELF DESTRUCTING, AS
DID THE SOVIET UNION, I THINK IT IS A REAL POSSIBILITY.
>> THIS IS THE MOST ISOLATED COUNTRY IN THE WORLD.
I HAVE BEEN THERE, THERE IS NO INTERNET, NO COMMUNICATION, NO
RADIO, NONE OF THE INTERACTIONS THAT LEAD TO WHAT HAPPENED IN
THE SOVIET UNION. LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT AFGHANISTAN
AND THE DECISION TO USE THAT MOAB, THAT LARGE WEAPON, NEVER
BEFORE USED, DID YOU HAVE THE OPTION OF USING THAT?
OR WAS THAT WEAPON NOT OPERATIONAL AT THAT POINT?
>> WELL, WHEN I WAS SECRETARY OF DEFENSE, WE WERE WORKING ON
DEVELOPING THAT WEAPON. VERY FRANKLY, IT WAS INITIALLY
TARGETED AT THE POTENTIAL OF GOING AFTER UNDERGROUND
ENRICHMENT IRAN. THAT WAS OUR CONCERN.
IT IS A VERY EFFECTIVE WEAPON. I HAVE SEEN IT TESTED.
IT CAN PENETRATE DEEPLY INTO THE GROUND AND CAUSE A HUGE
EXPLOSION LIKE WE HAVE SEEN. IT IS A WEAPON THAT CAN BE USED
EFFECTIVELY, AS IT WAS IN AFGHANISTAN TO GO AFTER ISIS
FIGHTERS LOCATED IN DEEP CAVES. I THINK THAT IS A GOOD USE OF
THE WEAPON. >>> AND ON SYRIA, THE FUTURE OF
ASSAD INFORM HIS INTERVIEW, HE REJECTED THE ACCUSATIONS OF
CHEMICAL WEAPONS. QUESTIONING WHETHER OR NOT THE
PICTURES ARE REAL, THE DEAD CHILDREN WERE REALLY DEAD AT
ALL. HOW WOULD YOU DEAL WITH THE
THREAT OF ASSAD, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT RUSSIA HAS
IT'S BACK? >> WELL, YOU KNOW, I THINK THE
UNITED STATES HAS GOOD LEVERAGE HERE.
NOT ONLY IN DEALING WITH SYRIA AND RUSSIA, BUT ALSO IN WORKING
WITH THE COMMUNITY TO CONTINUE TO PUT PRESSURE ON SYRIA.
WE HAVE SHOWN THAT WE'RE WILLING TO TAKE MILITARY ACTION.
WE HAVE A HIGH MORAL GROUND HERE BECAUSE OF THE USE OF THE
CHEMICAL WEAPONS. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH
CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT SYRIA WAS INVOLVED IN A SYRAN ATTACK ON
IT'S PEOPLE. AND OBVIOUSLY IT WAS, AS POINTED
OUT BY SECRETARY TILLERSON, EITHER INCOMPETENT OR
PARTICIPATING IN USING THESE CHEMOCAM WEAPONS.
SO WE HAVE A GOOD CASE. I THINK WE NEED TO CONTINUE TO
PRESSURE THEM, TO CONTINUE TO GO AFTER ISIS, BUT WE ALSO NEED TO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THOSE FORCES WORKING AGAINST ASSAD.
THERE IS NO WAY WE CAN MAINTAIN THE REGIME AGAINST SYRIA.
>> WAS THE OBAMA WHITE HOUSE WRONG TO NOT ENFORCE THEIR OWN
RED LINE AFTER SENDING SECRETARY OF STATE OUT 24 HOURS EARLIER TO
GIVE WHAT WAS BASICALLY A DECLARATION THAT WE WOULD TAKE
THE MILITARY OPTION? >> I ALWAYS SAID THAT WHEN A
PRESIDENT PUTS HIS CREDIBILITY ON THE LINE WITH A RED LINE, AS
PRESIDENT OBAMA DID SAYING WE WOULD NOT ALLOW THEM TO KUS
CHEMICAL WEAPONS, I THINK IT WAS THE RIGHT STEP TO TAKE, BUT IT
WAS ALSO IMPORTANT TO STAND BY THAT RED LINE AND ENFORCE IT.
I THINK WHEN THERE WAS HESITANCY TO DO GO TO CONGRESS FOR
PERMISSION, AND NOT TAKE ACTION, I THINK IT SENT A MESSAGE TO
ASSAD AND RUSSIA AS WELL. I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO SET
RED LINES. WHEN YOU SAY WE WILL DO
SOMETHING, YOU HAVE TO STAND BY YOUR WORD.
OTHERWISE IS SENDS A MESSAGE OF WEAKNESS TO THE WORLD.
>> YOU HAVE SENIOR COLLEAGUES, HOW FRACTIONED IS THE PROBLEM
NOW? YOU HAVE STEVE BANNON, A
SON-IN-LAW, A NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR WITH CLOUT, DO TOO MANY
PEOPLE HAVE THE PRESIDENT'S EAR ON THESE THINGS?
>> I'M HAVING A HARD TIME UNDERSTANDING HOW THE WHITE
HOUSE WORKS WITH THAT MANY POWER CENTERS.
I THOUGHT IT WAS IMPORTANT TO HAVE ONE CHIEF OF STAFF, NOT TO
HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE WANDERING AROUND WITH NO KIND OF PORTFOLIO
IN TERMS OF RESPONSIBILITY, BUT TO GO IN MEETINGS AND SAY WHAT
THEY THINK AND HAVE NO RESPONSIBILITY.
I THINK THERE IS TOO MANY POWER CENTERS.
WHO IS REALLY IN CHARGE? AND I THINK IT WOULD BE
IMPORTANT TO ACCOMPLISH A STRONG CHIEF OF STAFF, WITH THE
AUTHORITY AND THE DISCIPLINE TO RUN A TIGHT STAFF, EVERY

Leon Panetta: Dangerous To Take Preemptive Strike On North Korea | Andrea Mitchell | MSNBC

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