>> NORTH KOREA IS APPARENTLY ONE STEP CLOSER TO ARMING A MISSILE
CAPABLE OF STRIKING THE UNITED STATES.
ON JULY 4th, THE REGIME FIRED OFF THE TEST LAUNCH EVER WHAT
SECRETARY OF STATE REX TILLERSON CONFIRMS WAS AN INTERCONTINENTAL
BALLISTIC MISSILE. THE U.S. IS RESPONDING BY
LAUNCHING ITS OWN WARNING MISSILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
KOREA. IT COMES AFTER THAT COUNTRY'S
NEWLY ELECTED PRESIDENT SAID PYONGYANG'S ACTIONS RESPONDING
MORE THAN JUST LIKE STATEMENT ALONE.
AND IN A SERIES OF TWEETS, PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS DOES THIS
GUY HAVE ANYTHING BETTER TO DO WITH THIS LIFE.
HARD TO BELIEVE THAT SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN WILL PUT UP WITH THIS
MUCH LONGER. PERHAPS CHINA WILL PUT A HEAVY
MOVE ON NORTH KOREA AND END THIS NONSENSE ONCE AND FOR ALL.
IT APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST SUCCESSFUL TEST OF AN ICBM BY
THE NORTH AND REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT STEP FORWARD FOR THE
COUNTRY'S WEAPONS PROGRAM. THE MISSILE FLEW FOR ABOUT 39
MINUTES BEFORE CRASHING INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN WITHIN JAPAN'S
EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE. ON STATE RUN MEDIA, NORTH KOREA
SAYS THAT THE NATION IS NOW A, QUOTE, PROUD NUCLEAR STATE.
OFFICIALS SAY THEY BELIEVE THE TEST WAS OF A TWO ON STAGE
MISSILE WITH A RANGE OF AT LEAST 3500 MILES AND POSSIBLY MORE
THAN 4100 MEANING ALASKA IS NOW WITHIN ITS RANGE.
>> ADMIRAL -- >> CHILLING.
>> -- WE'VE BEEN KNOWING FOR SOME TIME THAT NORTH KOREA WAS
GOING TO CAUSE A SERIOUS THREAT. BARACK OBAMA IN HIS MEETING WITH
DONALD TRUMP AFTER DONALD TRUMP GOT ELECTED TOLD HIM IN THE OVAL
OFFICE YOU'RE WORRIED ABOUT OBAMACARE, OBAMACARE IS NOT
GOING TO KEEP YOU UP AT NIGHT, NORTH KOREA IS.
WELL, HERE WE ARE SIX MONTHS LATER.
AND NOW NORTH KOREA APPARENTLY HAS THE ABILITY TO DELIVER A
NUCLEAR WEAPON TO ALASKA. WHAT IS OUR MOVE?
>> AS WE'VE TALKED ABOUT BEFORE, JOE, THESE ARE -- IT'S KIND OF
LIKE TWO STREAMS COMING TOGETHER.
THINK THE TITANIC AND ICEBERG. THEY HAVEN'T QUITE CROSSED YET.
THIS IS A LONG RANGE MISSILE, IT CAN PROBABLY GO 5,000 MILES.
IT DOES RANGE ALASKA. BUT THEY HAVE YET TO DEMONSTRATE
THE ABILITY TO PUT A NUCLEAR WEAPON, HARDEN IT, MINIATURIZE
IT AND DELIVER IT. SO I WOULD SAY THE STREAMS
HAVEN'T QUITE CROSSED. THEY ARE PROBABLY A YEAR AWAY,
MAYBE A YEAR AND A HALF. WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY.
BUT THE POINT IS IT IS ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL OF PREPARATION
FOR A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE IF WEE CAN'T SOLVE THIS THING
DIPLOMATICALLY, WHICH WE ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO DO.
THAT IS WHY THE MEETINGS THIS WEEK ARE IMPORTANT.
AT THE END OF THE DAY, ALL ROADS THROUGH PYONGYANG WILL LEAD
THROUGH BEIJING. WE NEED TO GET OUR MISSILE
DEFENSE SYSTEMS IN PLACE, WE CAN'T JUST TAKE THOSE OFF THE
TABLE. AND PREPARE FOR THE WHEELS
COMING OFFER IN CASE THEY DO. >> SO LET'S TALK ABOUT THE
DIPLOMATIC ROUTE. WE'VE BEEN TRYING THAT FOR YEARS
AND YEARS AND EVERY TIME WE TRY THAT, NORTH KOREA MAKES
ASSURANCES AND WE CATCH THEM LYING.
YOU CAN GO BACK TO 1994 WHICH BILL CLINTON HELD AS A MAJOR
VICTORY. ALL IT DID WAS GIVE HIM COVER TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING NUCLEAR WEAPONS WHICH THE BUSH
ADMINISTRATION FIGURED OUT AND THEN COULDN'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT
IT. SO WHY DO WE HAVE ARE ANY REASON
TO BELIEVE DIPLOMACY EVEN IF IT IS OUR BEST AND ONLY OPTION, WHY
DO WE HAVE REASON TO BELIEVE THIS TIME IT WOULD WORK WHEN
IT'S NEVER WORKED BEFORE? >> I THINK WE HAVE LESS AND LESS
CHANCE EVER IT WORKING. I DO FEEL THAT THAT IS WHY WE
NEED TO BE DOING THE PREPARATIONS IN CYBER, SPECIAL
FORCES, CONVENTIONAL. WE NEED TO BUILD THAT OPTION
SET. MAYBE PUTTING A HEAVY MOVE ON
SOMETHING IS A MUSICAL TERM. I DON'T KNOW.
BUT WE NEED TO CONVINCE CHINA AND FIND TRADE SPACE WITH CHINA
THAT WILL CONVINCE THEM TO DO THIS.
>> WHY IS CHINA RELUCTANT TO STEP IN, ADMIRAL?
>> BECAUSE AT THE END OF THE DAY WHAT CHINA IS REALLY CONCERNED
ABOUT IS NOT A ROGUE NORTH KOREAN LEADER.
THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE UNIFICATION OF KOREA.
THEY SEE THAT IF THIS THING REALLY PUSHES, WE'LL END UP WITH
A WAR IN THE PENINSULA, THEY WILL HAVE REFUGEES AND THE END
GAME WILL BE A UNIFIED KOREA. THEY LOOK AT THE UNIFICATION OF
GERMANY AND THE CREATION OF THAT JUGGERNAUT
JUGGERNAUT. THEY DON'T WANT THAT.
THAT'S WHY IT'S HARD TO CONVINCE THEM TO MAKE A HEAVY MOVE.
>> THE PROBLEM WITH US MUDDLING ALONG THOUGH OF COURSE IS THAT
NORTH KOKOREA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE ABILITY TO DELIVER A NUCLEAR
WEAPON TO ALASKA, SEATTLE, PORTLAND, SAN FRANCISCO,
EVENTUALLY LOS ANGELES. IF WE SIT BACK AND DO NOTHING,
THEN WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A MAD MAN WITH THE ABILITY TO
OBLITERATE ALL THE CITIES ON OUR WEST COAST.
>> CLEARLY NORTH KOREANS ALREADY HAVE THREE MISSILES THAT CAN HIT
THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE KNO 8, KNO 14.
THEY HAVEN'T BEEN TESTED AT FULL YOU RANGE, BUT WE KNOW THEY HAVE
AN INTERMEDIATE RANGE MISSILE. SO I AGREE THAT THEY ARE ABOUT A
YEAR AWAY. BUT WE'VE TRIED A LOT OF THINGS,
BUT YOU THE ONE THING WE HAVEN'T ARE IS REALLY TO IMPOSE COSTS ON
CHINA SO THAT CHINA HAS AN INCENTIVE TO HELP US.
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION STARTED DOING THAT LAST WEEK WITH THOSE
SYMBOLIC SANCTIONS THAT THE TREASURY IMPOSED ON THURSDAY AND
THE ARMS SALE. BUT WE NEED TO RAMP IT UP.
AND WE NEED TO ASK CHINA A QUESTION IN PUBLIC.
THAT MISSILE WE SAW YESTERDAY, THAT WAS LAUNCHED FROM A CHINESE
TRANSPORTER ELECTOR LAUNCHER. WE NEED TO ASK BEIJING WHY ALL
THIS CHINESE AND CHINESE LOOKING EQUIPMENT IS SHOWING UP IN NORTH
KOREA'S INVENTORY. BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE CHINA IS
>> TRUMP ADMINISTRATION STARTED TRYING TO BE NICE.
THEY HAD A CALL, WENT TO MAR LARGO, AND THAT QUICKLY
DISSIPATED AND NOW WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TARIFFS, HUMAN TRAFFICKING
ISSUES. IT DOES NOT FEEL THAT THE
RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA IS ALL THAT WARM AT THE MOMENT.
ON TOP OF THE POINT THAT WAS MADE EARLIER THAT THE CHINESE DO
NOT WANT THESE TWO COUNTRIES TO BE REUNITED IN ANY FORM OR
FASHION AND THAT THE CHINESE ENABLED A LOT OF THIS.
>> ABSOLUTELY. >> AND LET'S TALK ABOUT CHINA
FOR A SECOND. TELL ME WHETHER THIS ASSUMPTION
IS WRONG. ADMIRAL, FEEL FREE TO JUMP IN.
I'M THINKING THE CHINESE, ONE OF THE WEALTHIEST COUNTRIES IN THE
WORLD, DEALING WITH A CLIENT STATE WHICH IS ONE OF THE
POOREST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD, WITHIN THEIR SPHERE OF
INFLUENCE, THEY PROBABLY BOUGHT OFF 75% OF THE PEOPLE THAT ARE
AROUND THIS LITTLE DICTATOR. AND COULD GET RID RID OF HIM IFY
WANTED TO GET RID OF HIM. FOR CHINA TO SUGGEST SOMEHOW
THEY DON'T HAVE COMPLETE CONTROL OVER WHAT IS MOVING FORWARD
SEEMS TO ME LAUGHABLE. THERE IS NO WAY THAT THE CHINESE
WOULD ALLOW A MAD MAN ON THEIR BORDER WITHOUT HAVING AGENTS
SURROUNDING HIM EVERYWHERE HE GOES.
>> ABSOLUTELY. CHINA HAS AN ECONOMIC
STRANGLEHOLD AND DIPLOMATIC STRANGLEHOLD, BUT THE MOST
IMPORTANT THING CHINA SUPPLIES IS CONFIDENCE THAT THEY ARE SAFE
FROM THE UNITED STATES, SOUTH KOREA AND THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY. BEIJING COULD CONVINCE THOSE
AROUND KIM JONG-UN THAT IT WAS NO LONGER IN THEIR INTERESTS TO
SUPPORT THE WEAPONS PROGRAMS OR EVEN KIM JONG-UN HIMSELF.
I DON'T THINK WHAT I JINK CAN ACTUALLY CONVINCE KIM JONG-UN.
I DON'T THINK ANYONE CAN CHANGE HIS MIND, BUT THEY CAN CHANGE
REGIME ELEMENTS AROUND KIM JONG-UN.
CHINA HAS BEEN BUYING CHINESE GENERALS FOR DECADES NOW.
>> SO WHY NOT? WHY AREN'T THEY?
>> BECAUSE THEY WANT NORTH KOREA ON TO ACTUALLY --
>> ADMIRAL, JUMP IN. >> I WOULD JUST SAY THAT THIS
GETS BACK TO THE CALLE COULD YOU HUSBAND THAT THE CHINESE ARE
MAKING WHICH IS A BETTER STATE FOR THEM IS KIM JONG-UN EVEN IF
HE'S SLIGHTLY UNCONTROLLABLE, BUT AS LONG ON AS THEY HAVE THE
PENINSULA DIVIDED, THAT IS REALLY THEIR GEOPOLITICAL
OBJECTIVE. THE MINUTE THEY FEEL THEY CAN
REMOVE HIM, PUT SOMEBODY BETTER -- DIFFERENT CRACK OF
PEOPLE AROUND, I THINK THEY EVER -- THAT IS WHEN THAT
CALCULUS WILL SHIFT. >> CLEARLY THEY WANT A DIVIDED
PENINSULA, BUT THEY DON'T HAVE
TO WEAPONIZE NORTH KOREA WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY AND
MISSILES IN ORDER TO ACCOMPLISH THAT.
THEY ARE USING NORTH KOREA TO KEEP THE U.S. OFF BALANCE AND TO
KEEP JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA REALLY AT BAY.
SO THIS IS REALLY A WEAPONIZATION OF NORTH KOREA.
AND THE UNITED STATES NEEDS TO RECOGNIZE THAT.
>> RECOGNIZE IT, BUT FIRST WE TRIED BEING NICE SAYING YOU ARE
OUR BEST FRIENDS AND LET'S WORK THIS TOGETHER.
NOW WE'RE SWITCHING TO ON BEING MORE ANTAGONISTIC.
SO WE'RE GOPG THE OTHER WAY ABOUT THAT SO HOW DO YOU GET THE
CHINESE TO GET ON ON SIDE SO TO SPEAK?
>> YOU IMPOSE COSTS SO HIGH THAT BEIJING HAS NO CHOICE.
WE SAY YOU DO BUSINESS WITH THE NORTH KOREANS, YOU DO BUSINESS
WITH AMERICA, BUT NOT BOTH AT THE SAME TIME.
YOU HAVE TO CHOOSE. WE'VE NEVER PUT THEM TO THAT
CHOICE. >> SO AT WHAT POINT DO WE IMPOSE
A COST THRESHOLD THAT IS SO MUCH THAT CHINA DETERMINES IT'S TO
THEIR BENEFIT TO BALANCE WITH THE UNITED STATES WITH RUSSIA
AND NOT PLAY BALL? >> RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON IF CHINA
STALLS AT THE EMERGENCY MEETING OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL.
BECAUSE WE ONLY HAVE A YEAR, TWO YEARS TO GET THIS RIGHT.
IF WE CANNOT DETER KIM JONG-UN, AND THAT IS A REALLY BIG ISSUE,
THEN WE HAVE TO USE FORCE. BUT THAT YOU MEANS WE ALSO HAVE
TO USE EVERYTHING IN OUR TOOL KIT SHORT OF THE USE OF KINETIC
OPTIONS AND REALLY START TO IMPOSE THOSE COSTS ON BEIJING IF
THEY WILL NOT HELP THIS AFTERNOON.
>> AND BEIJING AND RUSSIA HAVE ALREADY DECIDED THAT THEY ARE
GOING TO STAND IN THE WAY OF THE UNITED STATES.
>> WHAT DO THOSE COSTS TO CHINA LOOK LIKE.
WE'VE HEARD AARD AGAIN AND AGAIT CHINA IS PERFECTLY CONTENT WITH
THE STATUS QUO. THAT THEY THERE ARE REASONS WHY
THEY WORRY ABOUT BECOMING TOO CONFRONTATIONAL HERE.
WHAT DO THOSE COSTS LOOK LIKE THAT MOTIVATE THEM DO WHAT THEY
CLEAR AREALLY DON'T WANT TO DO. >> LAST WEEK WE UNPLUGGED THE
BANK EVER DUNDONG. THIS WEEK WE UNPLUG BANK OF
CHINA,AREALLY DON'T WANT TO DO. >> LAST WEEK WE UNPLUGGED THE
BANK EVER DUNDONG. THIS WEEK WE UNPLUG BANK OF
CHINA, ALSO BECAUSE IT'S INVOLVED IN MONEY LAUNDERING.
THE WORLD'S LARGEST BANK MAY ALSO BE INVOLVED IN LAUNDERING.
WE DON'T KNOW. BUT ONCE YOU START TAKING THEIR
LARGEST FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND PUT YOU THEM OUT OF
BUSINESS, BEIJING STARTS TO NOTICE.
IT'S A QUESTION OF POLITICAL WILL.
WE HAVE YET TO SHOW THE CHINESE THAT WE'RE SERIOUS.
WE HAVEN'T BEEN SERIOUS SINCE AT LEAST 1994, SO WHY SHOULD THEY
TAKE US SERIOUSLY. WE NEED TO CHANGE THAT THIS
AFTERNOON. >> SO ADMIRAL --
>> I AGREE WITH GORDON. AND I'LL ADD ONE OTHER FACTOR
THAT IS AT PLAY HERE WHICH WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED WITH CHINA,
IT'S THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. WE HAVE AN ENORMOUS EQUITY
INTO A CHINESE LAKE. THEY CLAIM IT.
HOW THAT PLAYS UP WITH THE WORK THAT WE DO WITH NORTH KOREA IF
WE WANT TO AVOID IT BECOMES VERY DELICATE.
I AGREE WE NEED TO USE STRONG ECONOMIC TOOLS AND PROBABLY THE
NUCLEAR OPTION IN THE ECONOMIC ZONE IS TRADE ITSELF BETWEEN THE
UNITED STATES AND CHINA. AGAIN, WE'RE NOT THERE YET.
BUT I THINK THE POINT IS WE NEED TO RATCHET UP THESE SANCTIONS.
KEEP EVERYTHING AT PLA PLAY AND CHINA TO MAKE THAT HEAVY MOVE
BEFORE THIS THING IS -- >> REMEMBER THAT TRADE BETWEEN
CHINA AND THE U.S. DIMINISHING TRADE BETWEEN WITH CHINA ANDS
U.S. WOULD NOT BE A GREAT DAY FOR THE U.S.
>> BUT WE'RE I DON'T UNDERSTAND
BEYOND THE POINT WHERE WE HAVE COSTLESS SOLUTIONS.
WE HAVE TO BEAR SOME COSTS. >> I HATE TO BE SKEPTICAL, BUT I
THINK WE'LL BE HERE TWO YEARS FROM NOW TALKING ABOUT SANCTIONS
AND BEING TOUGH WITH CHINA. LETS JUST TAKE THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO, WHICH IS THAT CHINA DOESN'T MOVE BECAUSE CHINA IS
NOT GOING TO MOVE AND THERE AREN'T GOING TO BE SANCTIONS
THAT WILL GET THEM TO MOVE BECAUSE THEY WILL JUST MOVE AND
START TRADING A LOT MORE WITH EUROPE AND WE'LL END UP
ISOLATING OURSELVES ECONOMICALLY AND THEN BUSINESS INTERESTS IN
THIS COUNTRY WILL PRESSURE THIS WHITE HOUSE AND ANY WHITE HOUSE
TO START TRADING AGAIN WITH CHINA.
AND WE'LL BE WHERE WE'VE BEEN SINCE 1994.
SO LET'S GO AHEAD AND JUST TALK ABOUT IT.
TALK ABOUT THE EXTREME COSTS IF THE UNITED STATES HAS ON TO GET
A WORLD COALITION TO GO IN AND REMOVE THIS LEADER.
TALK ABOUT THE EXTREME COSTS TO THE PEOPLE OF SOUTH KOREA BE AND
POSSIBLY THE EXTREME COSTS TO THE ENTIRE REGION IF THAT IS A
DECISION WE HAVE TO MAKE IF THE DECISION IS BETWEEN THAT AND
ALLOWING SEATTLE AND SAN FRANCISCO AND LOS ANGELES TO BE
HIT WITH A NUCLEAR WEAPON. LET'S FAST FORWARD TWO YEARS.
WHAT DO YOU TELL THE PRESIDENT? >> THIS IS THE LANCE, THE BOIL
SOLUTION. AND IT'S PROBABLY NOT TWO YEARS
AWAY, IT IS PROBABLY A YEAR TO 18 MONTHS WHERE IT WILL BE ON
PRESIDENT TRUMP'S WATCH TO MAKE THIS DECISION.
AND IT BECOMES A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE THAT IS LEGITIMATE UNDER
INTERNATIONAL LAW, YOU WANT TO BUILD AN ASIAN COALITION,
GENTLEMAN IN AN, AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, AS MANY AS YOU CAN GET
ON ON BOARD AND YOU HAVE TO USE A COMBINATION OF CYBER, SPECIAL
FORCES AND YOU WILL HAVE TO USE LONG RANGE AIR FROM GUAM AS WELL
AS THREE TO FOUR CARRIER BATTLE GROUPS.
WE'LL LOSE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE IN THAT SCENARIO.
MANY WILL BE AMERICANS. THERE ARE 200,000 AMERICAN
CITIZENS THERE. IT'S A VERY DARK SCENARIO, BUT
IF YOU HAVE TO LANCE THE BOIL MILITARILY, CAN YOU DO IT, YES.
DO YOU HAVE THE LEGITIMACY TO DO IT WHEN THE N