LAY THE GROUNDWORK HERE FOR WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT.
TONIGHT WILL BE PRESIDENT TRUMP'S FIRST ADDRESS TO THE
NATION SINCE HE BECAME PRESIDENT, REALLY, SINCE THE
INAUGURATION. WHEN ASKED ABOUT ANY TROOP
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, HERE IS WHAT DEFENSE SECRETARY MATTIS
HAD TO SAY. >> I WAS NOT WILLING TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT TROOP LIFTS UNTIL WE CERTAINLY KNEW WHAT WAS THE
STRATEGY, WHAT WAS THE COMMITMENT GOING IN.
ONCE HE ANNOUNCES WHAT THE STRATEGY IS, WE CAN GET MORE
PRECISE ON AFGHANISTAN TROOP LEVELS.
>> NOW, TO UNDERSTAND THE CHOICES THAT THE PRESIDENT
FACES, LET'S GET A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF AFGHANISTAN.
LET'S BREAK IT INTO FIVE DISTINCT ERAS.
STARTING WITH PRE1979. THE BRITISH FOUGHT THREE WARS
THERE IN THE EARLY 19th AND 20th CENTURY.
THERE WERE MANY MANY WARS GOING BACK A COUPLE THOUSAND YEARS IN
AFGHANISTAN. BUT AT THE START OF THE SECOND
ERA IN 1979 TO 19 THE THE SOEF YACHTS INVADED.
THE CIA ARMED AND FUNDED A GROUP OF JIHADI WARRIORS CALLED THE MU
GENTLEMAN HA DEAN. THEN THE SLOW BREAK UP OF THE
SOEF UNION FORCED THEM TO GET OUT.
FROM 1989 TO 2000 ONE AFGHANISTAN WAS BASICALLY A
WRECK, A CIVIL WAR ANDED CONTROL TO THE TALIBAN AND THE COUNTRY'S
STRIEF FORCED THIS COUNTRY TO ITS KNEES.
AND THEN SEPTEMBER 11th HAPPENED.
FOR MORE THAN A DECADE THE U.S. STRUGGLED TO SUCCEED, INCLUDING
IN 2010 THE SURGERY, ANOTHER 33,000 SOLDIERS AND MARINES
BRINGING IT TO ALMOST A HUNDRED,000 FIGHTERS IN
AFGHANISTAN. IN 2014 PRESIDENT OBAMA UNVEILED
HIS TROOP WITHDRAWAL STRATEGY, CALLED FOR ABOUT 5,600 TROOPS BY
2015 AND AN EXIT FOR COMBAT FORCE BY THE END OF 2016.
BUT THERE ARE CURRENTLY 8,400 U.S. TROOPS STATIONED THERE
ALONGSIDE SEVERAL THOUSAND INTERNATIONAL FORCES.
2,388 U.S. SERVICE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN KILLED IN AFGHANISTAN SINCE
2001, AND AS FOR CIVILIAN CASUALTIES, JUST THE FIRST HALF
OF THIS YEAR HAVE SEEN 5,243. OKAY.
AS PROMISED, STILL WITH ME ARE MEDLY HASSAN AND RETIRED GENERAL
McCAFFREY. MEDLY, LET ME START WITH YOU.
VERY STRANGELY YOU HAVE FOUND YOURSELF IN AGREEMENT WITH WHAT
WE KNOW DONALD TRUMP HAS BEEN SAYING ABOUT AFGHANISTAN, THAT
WE SHOULDN'T HAVE GONE IN AND WE SHOULDN'T BE THERE.
>> YEAH. AS YOU SAY, ALI, AND WHEN HE
WASN'T PRESIDENT HE USED TO SAY AFGHANISTAN IS A MESS, IT'S A
WAIST OF TIME, IT WAS A MISTAKE. WE SHOULD BRING THE TROOPS HOME.
WE NEED TO GET OUT, AND I HATE TO AGREE WITH DONALD TRUMP, BUT
I THINK HE WAS RIGHT THEN. AND EVER SINCE HE'S ENTERED THE
WHITE HOUSE HE'S NOW THE THIRD PRESIDENT IN A ROW WHO HAS TO
DEAL WITH AFGHANISTAN AND THE PROBLEM OF THE TALIBAN.
AND, YOU KNOW, HE'S A GUY WHO LIKES TO WIN, ALI.
HE HATES TO LOSE. WE KNOW THAT.
AND R MONTH EVERY WEEK HIS GENERALS ARE SHOWING HIM MAPS
SHOWING THE TALIBAN CONTROLS MORE AND MORE TERRITORY IN
AFGHANISTAN AND HE RIGHTLY THINKS THAT AMERICA IS NOT JUST
NOT WINNING TO QUOTE DEFENSE SECRETARY MATTIS, BUT LOSING AND
HE HATES TO LOSE. WHAT DO YOU ABOUT IT.
THIS IS A PRESIDENT WHO DOESN'T HAVE A CLUE WHAT TO DO IN
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS. IN JULY HE HAD A MEETING WHEN HE
WANTED TO SACK THE TOP GENERAL EVEN THOUGH IT'S NOT HIS FAULT.
SO THAT'S HOW HE SEES THE REST OF THE WORLD.
THIS IS THE GUY WHO IS THE GREAT DEALMAKER.
I WISH HE WOULD ACTUALLY DO WHAT A LOT OF EXPERTS HAVE SAID OVER
THE YEARS WHICH IS TRY TO FIND SOME KIND OF DEAL WITH A MORE
REALISTIC LESS CRAZY PARTS OF THE TALIBAN AND GET OUT OF
THERE. DON'T SEND MORE TROOPS TO DIE IN
WHAT IS BASICALLY AN UNWINNABLE WAR.
>> THAT'S WHAT WE'VE COME DOWN TO.
THE LESS CRAZY PARTS OF THE TALIBAN.
IN A GREAT HARL THAT HE WROTE HE QUOTES FROM HENRY KISS ENGINEER
SAYING THE CONVENTIONAL ARMY LOSES IF IT DOES NOT WIN.
THE GORILLA WIN IF HE DOES NOT LOSE.
DO YOU SHARE MEDLY'S SEPTEMBER SIMPLE ABOUT THE ABILITY TO WIN
A WAR IN AFGHANISTAN? >> WELL, I THOUGHT THAT WAS
PERCEPTIVE IN HIS PART AND ALSO ENTERTAINING.
BUT LOOK, HERE IS THE PROBLEM. WHAT ARE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY
INTERESTS GOING FORWARD, WHAT ARE THE OBJECTIVES THAT
PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL OR WILL NOT ARTICULATE TONIGHT, AND THEN THE
LEAST IMPORTANT THING IS PROBABLY THE TACTICAL MEASURES
WE TRY AND GET TO. 4,000 TROOPS CLEARLY WON'T MAKE
A HILL OF BEANS' DIFFERENCE. HAVING A VICE ROADWAY FOR THE
REGION MAY PROBABLY HELP. NOW, THE PROBLEM IS THE AFGHAN
NATION ISN'T GOING TO HAVE A UNION TERRY FEDERAL STATE UNDER
THE RULE OF LAW IN THE COMING 25, 50 YEARS.
HOWEVER, IF WE WITHDRAW AT THIS POINT, IT I AM PLOEDS.
IT INVOLVES CERTAINLY PAKISTAN WHICH IS ACTEL
QUITEOLOGICICALLY, BY THE WAY. THEY DON'T WANT CHAOS IN THEIR
AREA. PAKISTAN ISN'T THE STRAEL
PROBLEM. IT'S TRY BALANCE FANGSZ
MURDERING EACH OTHER AFTER A BRUTAL CIVIL WAR.
I THINK WE'RE GOING TO HEDGE OUR BETS.
WE'RE GOING TO COPE. WE DON'T WANT TO SEE A GIANT,
TERRIBLE DISASTER IN THE AREA.