North Korea Can Push ‘Hard Without Much Consequence’ | MTP Daily

AND AT HAPPENED WHEN A COUNTRY CALLS THE WORLD'S BLUFF?
ARE WE STARING AT THE PRODUCT OF THAT?
JOINING ME IS MSNBC'S SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST.
VERY ACTIVE IN THE EARLY PARTS IN THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION.
JUAN, IS THIS THE RESULT -- IS THIS NORTH KOREA CALLING THE
WORLD'S BLUFF? AND THEN I'VE GOT TO ASK YOU
ABOUT THE PRESIDENT'S RHETORICAL RESPONSE TODAY.
>> CHUCK, I THINK THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS AT PLAY.
ONE, THIS IS A REGIME TRYING TO NOT ONLY ESTABLISH ITS POWER BUT
DEMONSTRATE ITS POWER IN PYONGYANG IN TRYING TO
ACCELERATE ITS MISSILE AND NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES.
AND THE NEWS TODAY OBVIOUSLY SUGGESTS THAT THAT PACE IS MUCH
FASTER THAN PRIOR ESTIMATES HAVE SUGGESTED.
AND SO THEY HAVE -- THEY HAVE PERHAPS REACHED THE POINT WHICH
THEY'VE BEEN ABLE T TO MINIATURE A NUCLEAR DEVICE TO PUT IT ON A
MISSILE TO HIT THE UNITED STATES.
IF THAT'S THE CASE, THEY'VE SURMOUNTED ONE OF THE KEY
TECHNICAL HURDLES THAT REMAINS IN THEIR PROGRAM.
SO THAT'S ONE THING. CERTAINLY THEY HAVE BEEN
CONDITIONED TO TAKE THE WORLD TO THE POINT OF BRINKSMANSHIP.
THEY KNOW HOW TO NOT ONLY BLUSTER AND ENGAGE IN BRAGGING,
BUT THEY KNOW HOW TO PUSH THE NATIONAL COMMUNITY TO THE BRINK
AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DOESN'T PUSH BACK THAT HARD OR
THAT OFTEN. IT'S BEEN EPISODIC.
YOU'RE RIGHT TO SUGGEST THAT THAT'S BEEN A CONDITIONING OF
THE REGIME TO THINK THAT THEY CAN PUSH PRETTY HARD WITHOUT
MUCH CONSEQUENCE. >> I LOOK BACK ON THIS, AND I
WONDER HOW GOOD IS OUR INTELLIGENCE IN NORTH KOREA?
AND I SAY THIS BECAUSE THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME THAT WE'VE
BEEN TOLD, OH, YEAH, IT'S MUCH FASTER THAN WE THOUGHT.
AT EACH STEP, AS NORTH KOREA HAS GOTTEN CLOSER TO THIS POINT,
THEY'VE ALWAYS GOTTEN THERE FASTER THAN THE UNITED STATES
EXPECTED. >> I THINK NORTH KOREA IS ONE OF
THE INTENSE ENIGMAS, VERY HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHAT'S HAPPENING
IN THE REGIME AND HARD TO UNDERSTAND THE INTENT AND
LEADERSHIP AND THE STRATEGY. BUT I THINK THEY'VE BEEN OPEN
AND CLEAR ABOUT THIS. THEY'RE MARCHING TOWARDS A
NUCLEAR CAPABILITY. YOU'VE SEEN UNDER KIM JONG-UN AN
ACCELERATION OF THE MISSILE TESTS SINCE HE TOOK OVER.
THREE OF THE FIVE NUCLEAR TESTS THAT THEY'VE ENGAGED IN STARTING
IN 2006 HAVE COME UNDER HIS RULE.
AND SO THE INTELLIGENCE IS OFTEN INCOMPLETE AND IMPERFECT.
BUT THEY'RE DEMONSTRATING WHERE THEY'RE HEADED.
THE U.S. HAS A DIFFICULT TIME WITH NUCLEAR PROGRAMS.
OBVIOUSLY, AN UNDERSTANDING WHERE THESE PROGRAMS GO.
IRAQ IS A GOOD EXAMPLE. EVEN WITH PAKISTAN AND INDIA,
THERE WERE DIFFICULTIES, AND UNDERSTANDING THE TIMING, THE
CAPABILITIES AND THE EXTENT OF THESE PROGRAMS IS A HARD PROBLEM
FOR THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY. >> SO THE PRESIDENT SAID THAT
NORTH KOREA, IF THEY THREAT AGAIN, AND THEY THREATEN THE
UNITED STATES VERBALLY, THE PRESIDENT SAID IF THEY THREATEN
AGAIN THEY'LL BE MET WITH FIRE AND FURY.
IS THAT A RED LINE? SHOULD THAT BE INTERPRETED AS A
RED LINE? FRANKLY, I SEE HIM SAY IT AROUND
THERE. I THINK WE'RE ALL CONDITIONED TO
THINK WELL, JEES, PRESIDENT TRUMP LIKES TO BLOVIATE A LITTLE
BIT. HE OVERUSES WORDS.
BUT HOW IS KIM JONG-UN GOING TO HEAR THAT?
HOW IS THE WORLD GOING TO HEAR "FIRE AND FURY?"
>> RIGHT. I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP IS
TRYING TO RECONDITION THE ENVIRONMENT.
BOTH WITH RESPECT TO NORTH KOREA BUT ALSO CHINA AND OTHER PARTIES
WHO HAVE A SAY IN WHAT HAPPENS NEXT.
I THINK CERTAINLY IT'S AGGRESSIVE LANGUAGE, LANGUAGE
THAT CAN BE OVERREAD AND TO YOUR POINT, CAN BE READ AS A RED
LINE. I SEE IT AS A WAY OF TRYING TO
RECONDITION THE ENVIRONMENT AND EVEN TO SIGNAL TO THE CHINESE
THAT THE UNITED STATES IS LOSING PATIENCE AND MAY DECIDE TO PUT
OTHER OPTIONS ON THE TABLE THAT HERE TO FOREHAVE NOT BEEN REAL
OPTIONS. YOU HAVE A REGIME THAT IS NOT
ONLY USED TO ITS OWN THREATS BUT WILLING TO TAKE MEASURES LIKE
SINKING NAVAL VESSELS, CYBER ATTACKS AND OTHER THINGS TO
PROVOKE AND PROD. WE THEN HAVE TO BE READY TO
RESPOND. I THINK THE PRESIDENT'S WORDS
SUGGEST THAT HE'S READY TO RESPOND.
I DON'T KNOW WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE.
AND CERTAINLY IN THIS CASE IT COULD BE INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS.
>> JUAN, I WAS JUST GOING TO SAY, WHAT WOULD BE THE -- I BUY
THE IDEA THAT THE UNITED STATES, BECAUSE NORTH KOREA DOESN'T
BELIEVE THAT THE MILITARY OPTION IS ON THE TABLE THAT ONE OF THE
THINGS YOU WOULD WANT TO DO IS THEY NEED TO BELIEVE THAT,
RIGHT? IN ORDER FOR DIPLOMACY TO WORK,
THEY NEED TO BELIEVE THAT. HOW WOULD YOU GO ABOUT DOING IT
IN A WAY THAT DIDN'T SOUND THE WAY THE PRESIDENT DID TODAY?
>> WELL, I'M NOT QUITE SURE. I THINK THIS IS A DIFFICULT
NEEDLE TO THREAD WITH NORTH KOREA, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SENSITIVITIES. I THINK PART OF THIS IS NOT JUST
WHAT YOU SAY BUT WHAT YOU DO. I THINK THE SANCTIONS PAST OVER
THE WEEKEND WERE SIGNIFICANT, 15-0 AT THE U.N.
IT ELICITED A RESPONSE, A PRETTY VOCAL RESPONSE FROM NORTH KOREA,
GIVEN THAT THE SANCTIONS, IF IMPLEMENTED PROPERLY AND
ENFORCED, WILL AFFECT THEIR ECONOMY.
I THINK IT'S DEMONSTRATED WITH MILITARY EXERCISES, WITH SOUTH
KOREA, JAPAN, WITH OTHER ALLIES IN THE REGION, MORE OF A
MILITARY PRESENCE. WE'VE SEEN THE OVERFLIGHT OF
U.S. FIGHTER JETS AND BOMBERS TO DEMONSTRATE AMERICAN RESOLVE.
I THINK IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THERE HAS TO BE AN ACCELERATION
OF DISCUSSIONS WITH CHINA AS TO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME URGENCY TO THIS.
THIS HAS TO BE PRIORITY NUMBER ONE.
MORE THAN WHAT THE PRESIDENT SAYS, I THINK IT'S WHAT THE
UNITED STATES DOES IN CONCERT WITH ALLIES AT THIS POINT THAT
MATTERS MORE. >> IS THERE A CASE TO BE MADE
THAT, BOY, THE PRESIDENT IS SOUNDING A LITTLE OVER THE TOP
IN HIS RHETORIC IS DESIGNED TO RATTLE CHINA?
>> ABSOLUTELY. I THINK YOU'VE SEEN THE
PRESIDENT, IN HIS TWEETS, IN HIS DIPLOMACY, IN WHAT THE U.S. HAS
TRIED TO DO DIPLOMATICALLY, TO TRY TO CHANGE THE DYNAMICS WITH
CHINA. I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS -- YOU
REMEMBER THIS, CHUCK, THE ISRAELI SABER RATTLING AT A KEY
TIME WHEN THERE WERE QUESTIONS WHETHER OR NOT THE EUROPEANS
WOULD IMPOSE MORE STRINGENT SANCTIONS ON THE OIL INDUSTRY IN
IRAN. SO I THINK PART OF THIS IS NOT
JUST MAKING NORTH KOREA BELIEVE THAT WE HAVE SOME MILITARY
OPTIONS AND THESE ARE OPTIONS THAT CAN BE TAKEN BEFORE THEY
HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF STRIKING THE UNITED STATES WITH A NUCLEAR
DEVICE, BUT ALSO DEMONSTRATING TO CHINA THAT THE CALCULOUS HAS
CHANGED AND YOU HAVE A PRESIDENT WILLING TO USE FORCE POTENTIALLY
AND WILLING TO UPSET THE CURRENT BALANCE THAT WILL IMPACT CHINA'S
FUNDAMENTAL INTERESTS. THAT HAS BEEN THE KEY PROBLEM
HERE, CHINA HAS NOT SEEN A FUNDAMENTAL INTEREST TO PRESSURE
PYONGYANG TO THE POINT OF STOPPING THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM.
>> THEY HAVE SOME REASONS NOW TO DO WITH ECONOMICS AND PERHAPS
THE UN

North Korea Can Push ‘Hard Without Much Consequence’ | MTP Daily | MSNBC

Latest Posts