Dallas Fed Explains: Cyclical vs. Secular Economic Trends

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If you turn on the radio or pick up a newspaper on any given day,
you're going to see short-term news.
It's not labeled "short-term news"—it's labeled news,
but it's going to be stock market developments,
GDP developments, inflation, jobs numbers, currency changes.
There's all these screens on the television
with minute to minute moves.
And I watch all that data too
and it's very interesting and it makes for good stories
but it normally comes as a result of
underlying structural forces
which you're probably not reading about.
Examples of those underlying structural forces,
or secular trends, would be
demographics, technology-enabled disruption,
slow-moving trends in the level of government debt-to-GDP,
and also globalization trends.
Many of these are slower moving, beneath the surface,
take years to unfold, but they are enormously powerful
and they have a profound effect
on shorter term economic developments.
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Dallas Fed Explains: Cyclical vs. Secular Economic Trends

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